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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

Read more

Industry News

US GAO Affirms CA Crisis Related to Shortage

LCG, June 25, 2002-The United States General Accounting Office released a report yesterday which finds that the California energy crisis was due to a lack of capacity in the state.

Politicians have disagreed over the origin of the California crisis, and recently exposed market manipulation pratices have set politicians' fingers pointing at energy companies.

The GAO report asserts that market manipulation alone did not result in the crisis and that the state had a higher demand than supply.

The report also pointed out that new generation was built in other deregulated sates, such as Pennsylvania and Texas, at a much higher rate relative to forecasted need than that in California. Through 2001 California built a quarter of its forecasted capacity needs, while Texas built more than twice is forecasted capacity need.

The GAO included several reasons for a lack of generation investment in California, including more unpredictable regulatory review and a longer permit process, 4 months longer than Pennsylvania and 10 months longer than Texas. Also, the GAO reports that Clean Air Act standards complicate permitting in California, and the unstable California market may scare off energy development.

Republican Representative Doug Ose has lauded the report and finds it supports his efforts to eliminate governor Gray Davis' control of the California Independent System Operator. Ose also asserts that changes must be made or shortages will plague the state again soon, although many energy officials have already asserted that the state has sufficient supply, and new energy projects are under development.

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