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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

Read more

Industry News

Calpine Plant Approved But Company Awaits Contract

LCG, September 12, 2002-California regulators approved a new 600-megawatt plant this week, but Calpine has announced it will not build until it signs a power contract.

The gas-fired Russell City Energy Center will be built some 16 miles southeast of Oakland and is expected to begin operations by spring of next year.

Calpine officials said yesterday that the low cost of wholesale electricity prevents the company from beginning construction on the Russell Center until power purchasing contracts are made.

The natural electricity purchaser for the region is Pacific Gas & Electric utility, subsidiary of the PG&E Corporation. Unfortunately, the utility filed for bankruptcy last year and requires bankruptcy court approval in order to buy power. In a step to facilitate purchasing in the power-starved region, the California Public Utilities Commission has recently allowed the not-so-creditworthy utility to take part in five-year contracts as long as they are backed by the Department of Water Resources.

Calpine acknowledges that the CPUC allowance may help to expedite the process, but the company has also been discussing contracts with other interested agencies and municipalities.
Located in San Jose, California, Calpine Corporation owns over 70 power plants, supplying over 16,000 MW in capacity nationwide.

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