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Press Release

EIA Publishes Regional Electricity Supply and Pricing Forecasts Using UPLAN Model



LCG, August 13, 2019--The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced that it is revising the presentation and modeling of its forecasts for electricity supply and market hub pricing to better reflect current electricity markets and system operations in the U.S. Beginning with the August 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the new forecasting approach models electricity markets using the UPLAN production cost optimization software developed by LCG Consulting. EIA uses the solution results provided by this proprietary model to develop the STEO forecasts of monthly electricity generation, fuel consumption, and wholesale prices.

The new forecasts will generally correspond to electric power sector generation and fuel consumption for 12 electric supply regions, rather than using state boundaries that frequently do not correspond to market boundaries. The new electricity supply regions in the STEO better reflect how electricity is produced in balancing authority dispatch areas and wholesale markets. EIA is also beginning to forecast average peak-period wholesale electricity prices for the market hubs in the STEO electricity supply regions.

To incorporate the UPLAN model into the STEO, EIA also redesigned its Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM), which consists of an integrated system of equations and identities that link the various components of the U.S. energy industry together. RSTEM consists of submodules for each energy source (crude oil, electricity, coal, etc.) and industry function (production, demand, prices, etc.). The UPLAN model uses input data assumptions that are derived from EIA historical data sources and from other modules with RSTEM, along with data provided by LCG. The electricity supply modules within RSTEM use information from the UPLAN model solution output to create the published STEO electricity forecasts.

The August 2019 STEO may be accessed at the following site:
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/special/supplements/2019/2019_sp_01.pdf

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