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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

Read more

Industry News

IEEE Published LCG's Study on How Large Flexible Loads Are Reshaping Texas

LCG, August 25, 2025--We are pleased to share that the paper “Economic Impacts of Price-Sensitive Loads in Electricity Reliability Council of Texas: Quantifying Effects of Large Flexible Loads” has been published on IEEE Xplore.

Co-authored by Sidart Deb and Sumedh Halbe of LCG Consulting, this work examines how the rapid growth of large, price-sensitive loads will reshape ERCOT’s grid economics. Understanding and quantifying these impacts is essential for ensuring a future grid that remains reliable, affordable, and sustainable.

Using LCG’s UPLAN market simulation model, the study quantifies how these loads affect key market and system metrics, including:
- Energy prices and scarcity pricing
- Congestion
- Customer payments
- Generator revenues
- Renewable energy curtailment
- Overall production costs

Special thanks to Srijib Mukherjee and Blake King, the guest editors, for their support and guidance throughout this publication.

Link to the paper: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11131367
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