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LCG, November 19, 2025--Oklo Inc. and Siemens Energy announced today that the parties have signed a binding contract for the design and delivery of the power conversion system for Oklo’s Aurora-INL (Idaho National Laboratory) nuclear small modular reactor (SMR). The agreement authorizes Siemens Energy to begin engineering and design work to expedite procurement of long-lead components and to initiate the manufacturing process for the power conversion system. Oklo’s expertise in advanced fission technology will be combined with Siemens Energy’s extensive industry experience with steam turbine and generator systems, with the ultimate goal of generating carbon-free, reliable electricity.
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LCG, November 19, 2025--NERC yesterday released its 2025–2026 Winter Reliability Assessment (WRA), which concludes "much of North America is again at an elevated risk of having insufficient energy supplies to meet demand in extreme operating conditions." The WRA does state that resources are adequate for normal winter peak demand, but extended, wide-area cold snaps will be challenging.
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Industry News
NERC's New Winter Reliability Assessment Raises Concerns for Elevated Risk of Insufficient Supplies to Meet Demand in Extreme Operating Conditions
LCG, November 19, 2025--NERC yesterday released its 2025–2026 Winter Reliability Assessment (WRA), which concludes "much of North America is again at an elevated risk of having insufficient energy supplies to meet demand in extreme operating conditions." The WRA does state that resources are adequate for normal winter peak demand, but extended, wide-area cold snaps will be challenging.
Two trends are driving resource adequacy concerns across the BPS for the upcoming winter. First is rising electricity demand forecasts. After years of flat or low (~1 percent) peak demand growth, the aggregate peak demand for all NERC assessment areas has risen by 20 GW (2.5 percent) since the previous winter. Nearly all assessment areas are reporting year-on-year demand growth, with some areas forecasting increases of nearly 10 percent.
The second trend is the continued shift in the resource mix characterized by (i) the retirement of dispatchable thermal generators and (ii) the growth in battery resources. Like demand, the total BPS resources have increased since last winter, but by less than half the capacity (9.4 GW) of the peak demand growth. The total BPS resource growth includes the net change in generating capacity as well as additional demand response.
NERC’s director of Reliability Assessments and Performance Analysis stated, "Electricity demand continues to grow faster than the resources being added to the grid, especially during the most extreme winter conditions where actual demand can topple forecasts by as much as 25 percent--as we saw in 2021 in ERCOT and SPP. This latest assessment highlights progress on cold weather readiness but underscores that more work remains to ensure energy and fuel supplies can be reliably delivered even during the harshest conditions."
For the electricity supply side, another underlying challenge for thermal generators is their reliance on fuel supplies, specifically natural gas. The WRA summarizes that there is evidence from the past two winters that indicates an improvement in the delivery of natural gas to bulk power system generators. However, natural gas availability for generators continues to be a critical risk during extreme winter conditions due to the uneven application of voluntary freeze protection mitigations impacting natural gas production and transportation.
"Natural gas is an essential fuel for electricity generation in winter. Winter fuel supplies for thermal generators must be readily available during the periods of high demand for both electricity and natural gas that accompany extreme cold weather," said NERC’s manager of Reliability Assessment. "Although we are seeing evidence of improved performance, grid operators in areas that rely on single-fuel gas-fired generators are exposed to unanticipated generator loss during cold snaps when gas supply interruptions are more prevalent."
NERC’s cold weather Reliability Standards address recommendations from winter storms Elliott and Uri reviews. The most recent standard, EOP-012-3, became effective on October 1, 2025, among the improvements in the new version are enhanced and expanded requirements to ensure that Generator Owners (GO) implement corrective actions to address known issues affecting their ability to operate in cold weather in a timely manner.
NERC's new WRA includes the following six recommendations to reduce the risks of energy shortfalls on the bulk power system this winter:
"Cold Weather Preparations: Reliability Coordinators (RC), Balancing Authorities (BA), and Transmission Operators (TOP) in the elevated risk areas should review seasonal operating plans and protocols for communicating and resolving potential supply shortfalls in anticipation of potentially high generator outages and extreme demand levels. Operators should review NERC’s Resources on Cold Weather Preparations.
GOs should complete winter readiness plans and checklists prior to December, deploy weatherization packages well in advance of approaching winter storms, and frequently check and maintain cold weather mitigations while conditions persist.
Load Forecasting: BAs should be cognizant of the potential for short-term load forecasts to underestimate load in extreme cold weather events and be prepared to take early action to implement protocols and procedures for managing potential reserve deficiencies. Proactive issuance of winter advisories and other steps directed at generator availability contributed to improved reliability during cold weather events of the past two winters.
Fuel: RCs and BAs should implement generator fuel surveys to monitor the adequacy of fuel supplies. They should prepare their operating plans to manage potential supply shortfalls and take proactive steps for generator readiness, fuel availability, load curtailment, and sustained operations in extreme conditions.
GOs/Generator Operators of natural-gas-fired units should maintain awareness of potential extreme cold weather developing over holiday weekends and the implications for fuel planning and procurement that may result given the natural gas purchase close dates that precede long, holiday weekends.
Regulation and Policy: State and provincial regulators can assist grid owners and operators in advance of and during extreme cold weather by maintaining awareness of BA, natural gas pipeline, and gas local distribution company operational public announcements and notices, amplifying public appeals for electricity and natural gas conservation, and supporting requested environmental and transportation waivers.
Undertaken annually in coordination with the Regional Entities, NERC’s WRA examines multiple factors that collectively provide deep and unique insights into reliability risk. These factors include resource adequacy, encompassing reserve margins and scenarios to identify operational risk; fuel assurance; and preparations to mitigate reliability concerns."
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UPLAN-NPM
The Locational Marginal Price Model (LMP) Network Power Model
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UPLAN-ACE
Day Ahead and Real Time Market Simulation
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UPLAN-G
The Gas Procurement and Competitive Analysis System
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PLATO
Database of Plants, Loads, Assets, Transmission...
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