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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

Read more

Industry News

California Hopes to Renegotiate Power ContractsAs Large Users Sign Their Own Supply Deals

LCG, Oct. 22, 2001--Energy advisors to California Gov. Gray Davis said on Friday that the state intended to press ahead in its attempts to renegotiate some of the power purchase agreements entered into by the state Department of Water Resources.

The water agency signed more than 50 contracts with independent power producers for some $43 billion worth of electricity to be delivered mostly over the next ten years, but with one contract extending 20 years into the future.

The cost of power under those contracts averages about $69 per megawatt-hour, more than twice the current market rate.

State records show that many large power customers aren't waiting around to see what the state will pay for power and are arranging their own deals with power suppliers. That move could leave householders and small commercial customers on the hook for the high-priced power.

"This stampede could shift over $8 billion in costs to these consumers in coming years," said state Treasurer Phil Angelides, who added "It isn't fair and it isn't right."

State officials say that not all of the power contracts will be renegotiated, but decline to say which.

"Certainly we're not targeting every contract," said Barry Goode, Davis' legal affairs secretary. "Long-term contracts have been extremely valuable in keeping the market stable."

Separately, the California Department of Water Resources, which also makes spot market power purchases to serve the day-to-day needs of the state's cash-strapped investor-owned utilities, said it expects its total electricity costs for the three utilities to be $17.2 billion by December of next year, a sharp drop from its earlier estimate of $21.4 billion.

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