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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

Read more

Industry News

CA Negotiates $3.5 Billion in Damage Control on Power Contracts

LCG, April 23, 2002-Energy companies have agreed to rewrite contracts, saving California $3.5 billion in long-term power contracts.

Pressured by the energy crisis and shackled to last year's skyrocketing rates, California bought $43 billion in long-term electricity contracts. A third of these agreements were renegotiated, trimming off $3.5 billion after five months of talks between state officials and power companies.

According to state officials, energy companies Calpine and Constellation Energy also will pay $8.5 million in settlements regarding allegations that they charged illegally inflated prices during the power crisis.

The state managed to renegotiate four large Calpine contracts, one contract with Constellation and contracts with Capitol Power, Cabazon and Whitewater Hill, deflating their total of $15 billion to $11.4 billion.

According to Governor Gray Davis's chief counsel Barry Goode, the new contracts utilize stronger language, guaranteeing that new generators will be built. The state will have greater authority to deny grants and even terminate one of the contracts if power companies fail to create sufficient new generation. Calpine will face fines if it does not build new plants, including the proposed Metcalf facility, which is intended to supply Silicon Valley.

As a result of the new contracts, California will no longer demand refunds from Calpine through the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). State agencies will not question the contracts' "reasonableness" either. However, Governor Davis plans to continue urging FERC to investigate the possibility that power companies manipulated California's electricity market.

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