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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

Read more

Industry News

PUC Staff Make Proposal for Texas Balancing Market

LCG, Mar. 19, 2003--A plan for preventing price spikes in the balancing energy market within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has been put forth by staff with the Public Utility Commission (PUC) of Texas.

The proposal is a reaction to price spikes that occurred in late February, when the balancing market priced Up Balancing Energy Service at $990/MWh, just below the $1,000 price cap. A more complicated plan addressing price spikes has been in development by the PUC's Market Oversight Division and ERCOT for about six months.

The new proposal would come into play when all power offered in the balancing market was to be bought by ERCOT, the grid operator. In such situations, sellers would be informed that prices would probably be reduced at a later date. The reduction would be calculated as if ERCOT had bought only 90% of the amount of energy actually used. The Market Oversight Division will continue to look at ways to address spikes, but has recommended the new proposal to commissioners while it does so.
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