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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

Read more

Industry News

California Re-regulation Likely to Reverse Under Schwarzenegger

LCG, Oct. 10, 2003--California Governor-elect Arnold Schwarzengegger favors more emphasis on an open power market than outgoing Gov. Davis, and will likely try to encourage investment in new generation and transmission infrastructure for the state.

One of the changes to state policy enacted in the past year was the demise of directly negotiated contracts between energy suppliers and large customers. Schwarzenegger's position statements and comments by aides signal that he would favor allowing such contracts again. He would also reportedly try to bring about greater diversification of fuels used by new generating plants, to lessen price volatility associated with natural gas.

Under Schwarzenegger, cooperation with other states on grid connections and long-term planning could also receive greater attention.

California's experience with market manipulation have caused California regulators to move in the direction of a possible role for the state's major utilities in making long-term arrangements for access to dedicated generating units, as in the traditional regulated model. Schwarzenegger is unlikely to make utilities or the state responsible for a greater share of generation, and instead favors better policing of electricity markets to prevent manipulation.
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