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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

Read more

Industry News

ISO New England Submits Generator Incentive Proposal

LCG, Mar. 2, 2004--The Independent System Operator New England (ISO NE) has developed a proposal for review by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) concerning payments to generators to provide them incentives to operate in areas around Boston and Connecticut that are vulnerable to congestion.

The grid operator would like its proposal to be implemented June 1, although FERC may request changes to the plan. The general idea of the incentive system has received the agency's support previously. The chief executive of the ISO, Gordon van Welie, has said that the plan relies in part on market-based payments to generators, instead of negotiated payments entirely. Some plants are operating but losing money, under "reliability must run" orders issued by the ISO.

The attorney general of Massachusetts, Thomas F. Reilly, has expressed skepticism that the amount of incentives are justified. Utility NStar Electric's spokesman Michael Durand was quoted in the Boston Globe as saying the plan, which NStar estimates could lead to a 7 per cent increase rate hike for its customers, "would cost our customers too much money."

According to van Welie, the plan tries to address the problems of siting and past investment decisions that have left some regions with more power than they require, while others are vulnerable to problems of insufficient transmission and higher prices.
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