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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

Read more

Industry News

Connecticut AG Opposes ISO-NE's Latest Proposal

LCG, September 8, 2004--ISO New England's (ISO-NE) latest proposal to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to include two locational ICAP (Installed Capacity) markets in Connecticut is opposed by Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, who estimates customers in the Southwest Connecticut market could annually pay as much as $100 million more for power. "It provides a windfall to power-plant owners and higher rates charged to one area of the state without any benefit to consumers."

The locational ICAP markets are designed to attract new generation on a locational basis, i.e., where it is needed given the location of load and transmission lines, to improve electric reliability. ISO-NE's original proposal of March 1, 2004 included four ICAP Regions: Northeast Massachusetts-Boston, Maine, Connecticut, and Rest of Pool. In response to specific directives from the FERC, the latest testimony submitted by ISO-NE splits Connecticut into two locational markets (Southwest Connecticut and Rest of Connecticut), recognizing the current transmission limitations.

In the long run, if generation is attracted (consistent with the objective of the market design) and/or transmission upgrades - such as the proposed Middletown-Norwalk transmission upgrade - occur, then the locational markets would see similar prices and could even be combined. However, electric infrastructure additions in Connecticut have been slow to occur at best.

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