ERCOT 2019 Summer Quarter Outlook

LCG, May 29, 2019-- LCG released a new summer (June – September 2019) report that looks at how the ERCOT grid copes with strained network conditions. Resource adequacy analysis for the region is especially important during extreme summer loading conditions. This summer the network is under particular scrutiny as the reserves have tightened because of recent retirements.

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South Field Energy Breaks Ground for 1,182-MW Power Plant

LCG, May 16, 2019--South Field Energy LLC announced yesterday its groundbreaking for an 1,182-MW, combined-cycle electric generating facility in Columbiana County, Ohio. The natural gas-fired facility is scheduled to commence operations in mid-2021 and represents a $1.3 billion investment.

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Industry News

ERCOT Releases Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for Spring and Summer

LCG, March 5, 2015-The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) on Monday released its Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA). The SARA forecast indicates the region will have sufficient electric generation available to serve expected peak demand requirements in the upcoming spring and summer.

ERCOT's vice president of Grid Planning and Operations stated, "In a broad range of scenarios, ERCOT expects to have enough generation available to serve peak demand this spring.We continue to monitor a number of factors that could affect power plant availability and demand over the summer peak this year."

This spring, the SARA identifies over 76,600 MW of generation resources available to serve expected peak demand of about 62,000 MW. This forecast is based on average weather conditions seen during the previous 12-year period and typical seasonal generation outages experienced since December 2010, when ERCOT launched its nodal market design. It assumes the highest spring demand will occur in late May, following completion of most of the routine power plant maintenance that occurs during the spring to prepare for summer demand.

The preliminary summer SARA estimates summer peak demand at about 69,000 MW, based on 12-year average weather, with almost 77,000 MW of available generation resources to serve this summer's peak.

According to ERCOT, available operating reserves under the current scenarios analyzed could range from over 5,000 MW, based on the current forecast and typical outage rates, to less than 500 MW under a scenario in which demand exceeds the forecast by about 2,300 MW at the same time outages exceed the historical average by more than 2,400 MW. The latter weather scenario reflects the extreme conditions ERCOT experienced in summer 2011.

ERCOT stated that it will continue to monitor the potential impacts of prolonged drought conditions, regulatory changes that could affect generation availability, and any updates to the seasonal weather forecast. Any changes will then be reflected in the final summer SARA, which is scheduled for release in May.
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