COMPETITION, DEREGULATION AND FORECASTING

The electricity market is a multi-commodity market subject to unprecedented price volatility. This can be caused by a variety of factors such as the unpredictable swings in fuel prices, transmission bottlenecks that can erupt with little warning and random plant outages. Analytics that are based on simple production costing principles can be misleading. LCG's flagship Multi-Commodity Multi-Area Optimal Power Flow model for simulation and forecasting of energy prices offers clear insight into market dynamics. Forecasts based on fundamentals ensure price accuracy and consistency across the energy and ancillary product markets. For a trader or a buyer in a deregulated market, option valuation and risk management depend on measuring volatility.

LCG provides forward curves for energy and ancillary services, locational market prices, spot prices, real-time imbalance prices, transmission congestion prices and net revenues earned by assets and their volatilities.

Over 1000 studies have been delivered to several clients worldwide on the forward curves for energy and ancillary services, capacity reserve prices, locational market prices, spot prices, real-time imbalance prices, transmission congestion prices and net revenues earned by assets and their volatilities.

Some examples of readily available forecasts:

• Energy Price Forecast for all (All 120 Major Electric Hubs in US and Canada)
• Ancillary Service Price Forecast for California, PJM, NY, ERCOT and NEISO
• Spin and Non-spin Reserve Price Forecast for all other NERC Regions
• Hourly Market Price Forecast at Mid-C, CAISO, Palo Verde, and 4C (Nymex Forward Price)