Federal Government uses UPLAN model to examine price volatility in ERCOT

LCG, October 11, 2022--The U.S. Energy Information Administration, or EIA, released its latest supplement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) in the Texas market, assessing various possible scenarios using LCG’s UPLAN NPM model, with a special focus on the effects on wholesale power prices and market conditions.

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Michigan Governor Supports Reopening Palisades Nuclear Facility

LCG, September 16, 2022--The Governor of Michigan last week sent a letter to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in support of Holtec International’s application for a federal grant under the Civil Nuclear Credit (CNC) program to save the Palisades Nuclear Facility in Southwest Michigan. The federal grant could result in restarting the baseload, carbon-free, nuclear power plant.

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Press Release

EIA Releases Study on Drought Effects on California Electricity Generation and Power Market using UPLAN Model

LCG, June 6, 2022 – California is experiencing more frequent and intense drought conditions. One effect of droughts is the reduction in hydropower. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration assumes that monthly generation in the future follows average historical patterns to forecast California's hydroelectric generation. However, cyclic drought conditions demand an alternative approach to modeling hydropower, with more hydrological variables included to account for highly variable hydro conditions. Growth in intermittent generating capacity also magnifies the impact of droughts on power markets. In light of this, EIA performed this study as a supplement to STEO using LCG Consulting’s UPLAN model.

Six major hydropower projects in California are modeled for the critical summer months from June to September using detailed information about water and reservoir storage conditions. These hydropower projects have the biggest influence on the overall hydroelectric generation in California. EIA examines two cases: a median case assuming median water supply between 1980 and 2020 and a drought case representing the current year.

EIA found in the drought case, California's summer hydroelectric share of generation mix was nearly halved from 15% to 8%, with the reduction in generation offset by electricity from neighboring markets and in-state natural gas generation. Increased natural gas generation contributed to higher electricity prices and CO2 emissions. On-peak prices in Northern California increased by 7% relative to the median case, and Southern California by 5%.

The UPLAN model incorporated natural inflow to each hydropower project with initial reservoir inventory, and EIA used this information to produce forecasts of hourly generation.

EIA study link:

See previous press release for more on EIA's modeling work using the UPLAN model.
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